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Tracking COVID-19 in Europe: Infodemiology Approach
1Department of Computing Science and Mathematics, Faculty of Natural Sciences, University of Stirling, Stirling, United Kingdom.
JMIR Public Health and Surveillance
|April 7, 2020
Summary
Online search trends can track the spread of coronavirus disease (COVID-19). Google Trends data correlated with COVID-19 cases and deaths, proving useful for early-stage epidemic surveillance.
Area of Science:
- Infodemiology and digital epidemiology
- Public health surveillance and policy
- Infectious disease outbreak analysis
Background:
- Infodemiology leverages web data for public health insights and policy-making.
- Infodemiology metrics effectively assess and forecast epidemics and outbreaks.
- The COVID-19 pandemic highlighted the need for novel surveillance methods.
Purpose of the Study:
- To track the spread of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) in Europe using Google search traffic data.
- To correlate online search interest with official COVID-19 case and death data.
- To evaluate the utility of Google Trends for early-stage pandemic surveillance.
Main Methods:
- Utilized time series data from Google Trends (January-March 2020) for the "Coronavirus" topic.
- Correlated online search interest with official COVID-19 case and death data.
- Analyzed data for Europe, focusing on Italy, Spain, France, Germany, and the UK.
Main Results:
- Observed statistically significant correlations between online interest and COVID-19 cases and deaths.
- Identified a critical point where correlation declined, suggesting optimal use before peak cases.
- Demonstrated the efficiency of Google Trends in regions not yet experiencing peak COVID-19.
Conclusions:
- Infodemiology metrics, particularly Google Trends, are valuable for tracking and forecasting outbreaks.
- Google Trends data showed utility in monitoring the early spread of COVID-19.
- Exploring combined surveillance methods is crucial for healthcare system preparedness during pandemics.
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