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The Emergency Medicine Workforce: Shortage Resolving, Future Surplus Expected.

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The emergency medicine (EM) workforce is growing rapidly. Projections indicate a potential oversupply of emergency physicians (EPs) by 2030, shifting from historical shortages.

Keywords:
emergency medicine jobsemergency medicine residencyemergency medicine workforce: shortage resolvingfuture surplus expectedphysician workforce

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Area of Science:

  • Healthcare Workforce Analysis
  • Emergency Medicine Staffing
  • Physician Supply and Demand

Background:

  • The emergency medicine (EM) workforce is expanding due to increased residency programs and Advanced Practice Providers (APPs).
  • Historical data indicates a significant shortage of emergency physicians (EPs).

Purpose of the Study:

  • To analyze current patient volumes and characteristics.
  • To assess the overall physician and emergency physician (EP) workforce.
  • To project future emergency physician staffing needs.

Main Methods:

  • Literature review of current medical data.
  • Analysis of reports from certifying organizations and professional societies.
  • Web searches and review of published governmental data.

Main Results:

  • Emergency clinician demand is projected to grow by approximately 1.8% annually.
  • The supply of board-certified or eligible EPs is expected to exceed demand, potentially by 2.2% annually.
  • An oversupply of 20-30% for EPs is anticipated by 2030.

Conclusions:

  • The historical shortage of EPs may be resolved in the near future.
  • There is a significant potential for an oversupply of emergency physicians by 2030.
  • Growth in APPs may offset the need for increasing numbers of EPs.