Application of Optimal Control to Influenza Pneumonia Coinfection with Antiviral Resistance

Caroline W Kanyiri1, Livingstone Luboobi2, Mark Kimathi3

  • 1Department of Mathematics, Pan African University Institute of Basic Sciences, Technology and Innovation, P.O. Box 62000-00200, Nairobi, Kenya.

Insights

Preventive measures can eradicate influenza pneumonia coinfection. This study models coinfection dynamics and uses optimal control theory to find effective strategies against this public health threat.

Area of Science:

  • Epidemiology
  • Mathematical Biology
  • Public Health

Background:

  • Influenza and pneumonia cause significant global morbidity and mortality.
  • Influenza-pneumonia coinfection presents a more severe public health threat.
  • Antiviral resistance complicates the control of coinfection.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To develop a mathematical model for influenza-pneumonia coinfection transmission dynamics, incorporating antiviral resistance.
  • To apply optimal control theory to identify effective control strategies.
  • To investigate the impact of interventions like prevalence reduction and treatment.

Main Methods:

  • Formulation of a deterministic mathematical model for coinfection transmission.
  • Incorporation of antiviral resistance into the model.
  • Application of optimal control theory and Pontryagin's maximum principle.
  • Numerical solution using the Runge-Kutta-based forward-backward sweep method.

Main Results:

  • Simulation results indicate that prevention strategies are sufficient for eradicating influenza-pneumonia coinfection.
  • Identified key prevention measures include social distancing, vaccination, and controlling viral mutation/reassortment.
  • Curbing interspecies movement of influenza viruses is also highlighted as a crucial preventive measure.

Conclusions:

  • Mathematical modeling and optimal control theory provide insights into managing coinfection.
  • Proactive implementation of comprehensive prevention strategies is effective in eliminating influenza-pneumonia coinfection.
  • Public health interventions should focus on a multi-faceted approach to combat coinfection and antiviral resistance.

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