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Application of Optimal Control to Influenza Pneumonia Coinfection with Antiviral Resistance
Caroline W Kanyiri1, Livingstone Luboobi2, Mark Kimathi3
1Department of Mathematics, Pan African University Institute of Basic Sciences, Technology and Innovation, P.O. Box 62000-00200, Nairobi, Kenya.
Abstract:
Influenza and pneumonia independently lead to high morbidity and mortality annually among the human population globally; however, a glaring fact is that influenza pneumonia coinfection is more vicious and it is a threat to public health. Emergence of antiviral resistance is a major impediment in the control of the coinfection. In this paper, a deterministic mathematical model illustrating the transmission dynamics of influenza pneumonia coinfection is formulated having incorporated antiviral resistance. Optimal control theory is then applied to investigate optimal strategies for controlling the coinfection using prevalence reduction and treatment as the system control variables. Pontryagin's maximum principle is used to characterize the optimal control. The derived optimality system is solved numerically using the Runge-Kutta-based forward-backward sweep method. Simulation results reveal that implementation of prevention measures is sufficient to eradicate influenza pneumonia coinfection from a given population. The prevention measures could be social distancing, vaccination, curbing mutation and reassortment, and curbing interspecies movement of the influenza virus.
Insights
Preventive measures can eradicate influenza pneumonia coinfection. This study models coinfection dynamics and uses optimal control theory to find effective strategies against this public health threat.
Area of Science:
- Epidemiology
- Mathematical Biology
- Public Health
Background:
- Influenza and pneumonia cause significant global morbidity and mortality.
- Influenza-pneumonia coinfection presents a more severe public health threat.
- Antiviral resistance complicates the control of coinfection.
Purpose of the Study:
- To develop a mathematical model for influenza-pneumonia coinfection transmission dynamics, incorporating antiviral resistance.
- To apply optimal control theory to identify effective control strategies.
- To investigate the impact of interventions like prevalence reduction and treatment.
Main Methods:
- Formulation of a deterministic mathematical model for coinfection transmission.
- Incorporation of antiviral resistance into the model.
- Application of optimal control theory and Pontryagin's maximum principle.
- Numerical solution using the Runge-Kutta-based forward-backward sweep method.
Main Results:
- Simulation results indicate that prevention strategies are sufficient for eradicating influenza-pneumonia coinfection.
- Identified key prevention measures include social distancing, vaccination, and controlling viral mutation/reassortment.
- Curbing interspecies movement of influenza viruses is also highlighted as a crucial preventive measure.
Conclusions:
- Mathematical modeling and optimal control theory provide insights into managing coinfection.
- Proactive implementation of comprehensive prevention strategies is effective in eliminating influenza-pneumonia coinfection.
- Public health interventions should focus on a multi-faceted approach to combat coinfection and antiviral resistance.
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