The profitability of 'guessing' in multiple choice question papers

Area of Science:

• Educational Psychology
• Assessment and Evaluation

Background:

• Multiple choice questions (MCQs) with penalties for incorrect answers can lead candidates to omit items.
• Candidates who omit items may not necessarily be less able, but rather risk-averse.

Purpose of the Study:

• To investigate the impact of advising candidates to answer more items on their performance in MCQ examinations.
• To analyze changes in item omission rates and overall performance after behavioral intervention.

Main Methods:

• A cohort of candidates was studied across two MCQ examinations (1985 and 1987).
• Candidates who omitted many items in 1985 were interviewed and advised to attempt more questions.
• The same advice was provided to the entire group before the 1987 examination.

Main Results:

• Significant reduction in item omission rates in 1987, particularly among those who omitted many items in 1985.
• Candidates attempted more questions in 1987 and made more errors, but their relative performance improved.
• A positive correlation was observed between the number of items attempted and rank order improvement.

Conclusions:

• Advising candidates to attempt more items, even with uncertainty, can enhance their overall performance in penalty-based MCQ tests.
• The strategy of encouraging item attempts mitigates the negative effects of mark deductions for wrong answers.
• Optimal advice for candidates involves balancing the risk of errors with the benefit of attempting more questions.