Evaluating the uncertainty of risk prediction in genetic counseling: a Bayesian approach

A general method to obtain the exact point estimate and the measure of uncertainty of recurrence risks for genetic counseling is present. This method, which follows Bayesian estimation theory, can be applied without restrictions of sample size, class of risk function, or parameter dimension. As an illustration, the recurrence risks for isolated cases in two autosomal dominant disorders with incomplete penetrance (mandibulofacial and fontonasal dyostoses) are estimated.