Goldilocks conditions required for earthquakes to trigger basaltic eruptions: Evidence from the 2015 Ambrym eruption

Observations indicate a strong correlation between the occurrence of volcanic eruptions and earthquakes. While increased volcanic activity has been observed following both local and distal earthquakes, some of the largest recorded earthquakes aren't known to have triggered an eruption. Here we investigate whether an eruption and associated dike intrusion at Ambrym volcano was triggered by an M _w 6.4 earthquake which occurred 30 hours earlier. Modeling suggests that stress changes induced by the earthquake were too small to account for the overpressure in the dike without additional bubble growth to pressurize the magma chamber. We find that the magma must be both H₂O-saturated and at lower temperatures than those expected for newly intruded basalts. Too hot and the stress drop required to grow the bubbles is too large, too cold and the magma can no longer flow. These observations suggest that partially cooled and crystallized basaltic magmas are more susceptible to triggering from earthquakes.