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A FTA-based method for risk decision-making in emergency response.

Yang Liu1, Zhi-Ping Fan1, Yuan Yuan1

  • 1Department of Management Science and Engineering, School of Business Administration, Northeastern University, Shenyang 110004, China.

Computers & Operations Research
|April 15, 2020
PubMed
Summary
This summary is machine-generated.

This study introduces a Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) method to aid emergency response decision-making. It ranks response actions by estimating scenario probabilities in dynamic, evolving crises, improving risk management.

Keywords:
Emergency responseFault tree analysis (FTA)RankingScenario probability estimation

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Area of Science:

  • Emergency Management
  • Risk Analysis
  • Decision Science

Background:

  • Emergency response decision-making is fraught with risk and uncertainty due to limited data and evolving scenarios.
  • Key challenges include dynamic emergency evolution, multiple potential scenarios, and the impact of response actions.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To develop a risk decision-making method for emergency response.
  • To address the dynamic nature, multiple scenarios, and action-impact complexities inherent in emergency situations.

Main Methods:

  • A Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) method is proposed.
  • Fault Trees (FT) are constructed to map logical relationships in emergency evolution.
  • FTA is used to estimate scenario probabilities for different response actions.

Main Results:

  • The method provides a quantitative approach to assess emergency scenarios.
  • A ranking value is calculated for each feasible response action.
  • The proposed method effectively ranks response actions for optimal decision-making.

Conclusions:

  • The FTA-based method offers a feasible and valid approach for risk decision-making in emergency response.
  • It addresses the complexities of dynamic, multi-scenario emergencies.
  • The approach was validated through a case study on H1N1 infectious diseases.