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Transport impacts on atmosphere and climate: Aviation
1Dalton Research Institute, Department of Environmental and Geographical Sciences, Manchester Metropolitan University, Chester Street, Manchester M1 5GD, UK.
Atmospheric Environment (Oxford, England : 1994)
|April 15, 2020
Summary
Aviation significantly impacts climate change through CO2 and non-CO2 emissions, contributing to global warming. Updated assessments confirm these effects, with future impacts projected to rise substantially without mitigation strategies.
Area of Science:
- Atmospheric Science
- Climate Change Research
- Environmental Science
Background:
- Aviation is a recognized contributor to global atmospheric changes, including climate change and ozone depletion.
- The last comprehensive international assessment of aviation's environmental impacts was conducted by the IPCC in 1999.
- Significant scientific advancements have been made since 1999, reducing uncertainties in quantifying aviation's climate effects.
Purpose of the Study:
- To provide a comprehensive, updated assessment of aviation's impacts on the global atmosphere and climate.
- To quantify the radiative forcing from aviation emissions, considering both CO2 and non-CO2 effects.
- To evaluate future climate impacts under different emission scenarios and explore potential mitigation strategies.
Main Methods:
- Updated quantitative evaluation of aviation's climate impact based on recent scientific advances.
- Estimation of present-day radiative forcing from aviation (2005) and projection of future forcings.
- Analysis of the effects of CO2 and non-CO2 emissions (water vapor, particles, nitrogen oxides) on climate and atmospheric chemistry.
Main Results:
- Aviation's present-day radiative forcing (2005) is estimated at 55 mW m⁻² (excluding cirrus clouds) or 78 mW m⁻² (including cirrus clouds).
- Future forcings are projected to increase by 3-4 times by 2050 under SRES-compatible scenarios.
- CO2 emissions have long-term climate impacts (hundreds of years), while non-CO2 effects (e.g., ozone production) are shorter-term (decades).
Conclusions:
- Aviation's climate impact, driven by both CO2 and non-CO2 emissions, remains a significant concern.
- Uncertainties persist regarding particle impacts on clouds, though contrails and enhanced cloudiness likely cause positive forcing.
- Further research is needed for optimal technological mitigation strategies, with alternative fuels like hydrogen and biofuels offering potential solutions.
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