Evolution of the ASF Infection Stage in Wild Boar Within the EU (2014-2018)

African swine fever (ASF) is one of the most important emerging transboundary diseases of pigs, causing trade restrictions, and a health impact on susceptible pigs. Nine countries in the continental European Union (Estonia, Lithuania, Latvia, Poland, Czech Republic, Bulgaria, Belgium, Romania, and Hungary) have been affected by ASF from 2014 to 2018 and it keeps spreading despite the efforts to control it. For a number of years, we have witnessed high case-fatality rates in wild boar found dead particularly in new infected areas, which is typical of the peracute and acute forms of the infection at the beginning of an ASF epidemic. Experimental evidence with currently circulating strains indicates that some infected animals can remain asymptomatic and might even survive the infection. An increased presence of virus of moderate virulence can complicate ASF diagnosis as well as the mitigation and control of the disease. We analyze the ASF surveillance data in wild boar in the four EU countries where ASF has been present for longer, comparing the spatial density of antibody positive notifications with the time ASF has been present per region. Results indicate an increasing annual distribution of notifications based on antibodies over nucleic acid detection in hunted wild boar in Estonia, Latvia and Poland. Potentially, Lithuania, and Poland seem to have experienced more acute forms in 2017 and 2018 than Latvia and Estonia. Overall there was a positive statistical correlation between time with infection (TWI) and antibody positive density, with some variations in certain regions, particularly of Lithuania and Estonia. The increasing trend in potential survivors (hunted wild boar with confirmed PCR negative and antibody positive results) enhances the importance of surveillance design to sample and test shot wild boar. In conclusion, surveillance data based on ASFV detection by PCR and serology can be used to assess the status of the epidemic in wild boar.