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Understanding dynamics of pandemics
Levent Akin1, Mustafa Gökhan Gözel2
1Department of Public Health, Faculty of Medicine, Hacettepe University, Ankara, Turkey
Turkish Journal of Medical Sciences
|April 18, 2020
Summary
Pandemics like COVID-19 and historical influenza outbreaks spread globally. Managing pandemic burden requires understanding transmissibility and implementing containment strategies with public cooperation.
Area of Science:
- Epidemiology
- Virology
Background:
- Throughout history, novel viral strains, such as influenza, have caused pandemics, leading to increased illness, mortality, and societal disruption.
- Notable past pandemics include the 1918 Spanish flu, 1957 Asian flu, 1968 Hong Kong flu, and 2009 swine flu, each with distinct morbidity and mortality characteristics.
Observation:
- The current pandemic is caused by a novel coronavirus originating in China, termed COVID-19.
- COVID-19 shares similarities with previous influenza pandemics in its global spread facilitated by human mobility.
Findings:
- Pandemic burden is assessed by disease transmissibility, epidemic growth rate, and duration.
- Transmissibility is a key characteristic for calculating epidemic growth and pandemic duration.
Implications:
- Effective pandemic management necessitates robust case definitions, early case identification, and cluster detection.
- Sufficient medical stockpiles, proper treatment protocols, and public adherence to containment strategies are crucial for mitigating pandemic impact.
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