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Sample size calculation and re-estimation based on the prevalence in a single-arm confirmatory diagnostic accuracy
1University Medical Center Hamburg-Eppendorf, Institute of Medical Biometry and Epidemiology, Hamburg, Germany.
Accurate sample size calculation for diagnostic accuracy studies is crucial. A one-time blinded re-estimation design is recommended to ensure optimal sample size, regardless of true prevalence, improving study power and reliability.
Area of Science:
- Biostatistics
- Diagnostic Accuracy Research
- Clinical Trial Design
Background:
- Sensitivity and specificity are co-primary endpoints in diagnostic accuracy studies.
- Accurate sample size calculation requires accounting for target population prevalence.
- Incorrect prevalence assumptions can lead to overpowered or underpowered studies.
Purpose of the Study:
- To propose a method for optimal sample size calculation independent of prevalence.
- To evaluate blinded re-estimation designs for addressing incorrect prevalence assumptions.
- To compare the performance of one-time and repeated blinded re-estimation designs against a fixed design.
Main Methods:
- A simulation study was conducted to evaluate blinded re-estimation designs.
- One-time and repeated blinded re-estimation designs were compared to a fixed sample size design.
- The study assessed type I error rates, empirical power, and prevalence estimation bias.
Main Results:
- Both blinded re-estimation designs maintained desired statistical power and controlled type I error rates.
- Unbiased prevalence estimates were achieved with both re-estimation designs.
- The one-time re-estimation design showed no disadvantage compared to the repeated design; 50% of initial sample size is optimal for the internal pilot study.
Conclusions:
- A one-time blinded re-estimation design is recommended for diagnostic accuracy studies.
- This approach ensures reliable sample size and study power, irrespective of true prevalence.
- Optimal sample size calculation is critical for valid diagnostic accuracy assessments.
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