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Determining pig holding type from British movement data using analytical and machine learning approaches.

R P Smith1, C Gavin1, D Gilson1

  • 1Animal and Plant Health Agency (APHA) - Weybridge, Woodham Lane, New Haw, Addlestone, Surrey, KT15 3NB, United Kingdom.

Preventive Veterinary Medicine
|April 18, 2020
PubMed
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Accurately defining British pig population demographics is crucial for disease surveillance. Combining expert opinion, machine learning, and survey data offers the most precise method for classifying pig holdings and herd sizes.

Area of Science:

  • Veterinary epidemiology
  • Agricultural data science
  • Livestock population dynamics

Background:

  • Understanding livestock population structure is vital for effective disease surveillance and epidemiological research.
  • Accurate data on herd size, location, and demographics are essential for sample size calculations, cost-benefit analyses, and disease spread modeling.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To evaluate the suitability of British pig movement data for defining pig holding demographics.
  • To identify pig holding locations and estimate herd sizes using available datasets.
  • To compare the accuracy of epidemiological and machine learning methods for classifying pig holding types.

Main Methods:

  • Pig movement data was compared with other British pig population datasets to assess its appropriateness for demographic analysis.
Keywords:
AlgorthmHolding typeMachine-learningMovementPig

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  • Two methods were employed to classify pig holdings: an epidemiological approach using expert-defined rules and a machine learning approach (k-means clustering).
  • Both methods were validated against data from the Annual June Agricultural Survey.
  • Main Results:

    • Both the epidemiological and machine learning methods demonstrated good accuracy in classifying pig holdings.
    • A consensus model, integrating both methods and survey data, yielded the most accurate classification of pig holdings.
    • The machine learning approach proved significantly faster and easier to update with new information compared to the epidemiological method.

    Conclusions:

    • A consensus model combining epidemiological rules, machine learning, and survey data provides the most accurate characterization of British pig holdings.
    • Machine learning offers a rapid and adaptable tool for livestock population analysis, despite requiring initial technical expertise.
    • Accurate pig population data is fundamental for robust disease control strategies and research initiatives.