Potential new aerosol source(s) in the Middle East

The Middle East region suffers from high levels of air pollution originating from both Saharan/Arabian mineral dust particles and pollution from East Europe. A recent extreme autumn dust storm, originating from the Middle East, highlights the potential of a new aerosol source in the region. By studying the trends of daily regional synoptic systems through the 21st century, we show that dust-affiliated systems are projected to increase significantly, i.e. Red-Sea-Trough from 35.0 to 41.6% during autumn, for RCP8.5. Whereas, rain-affiliated ones are projected to decrease (for Cyprus Lows group from 18.7 to 12.5%). Here, it is suggested that those trends, along with increased anthropogenic activities, may result in the formation of a consistent new aerosol source in the area, which could influence life in the region. This is supported by a recent study showing an increase in dust deposition over the region.