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Independent external validation of nomogram to predict extracapsular extension in patients with prostate cancer
Joao Ricardo Alves1,2, Valdair F Muglia3, Fabiano R Lucchesi4
1Department of Urology, Barretos Cancer Hospital, Barretos, R. Antenor Duarte Vilela, 1331, Barretos, São Paulo, 14784-400, Brazil. joaoralves@hotmail.com.
Introduction:
The objective of this study was to perform an independent external validation of the Giganti-Coppola nomogram (GCN), which uses clinical and radiological parameters to predict prostate extracapsular extension (ECE) on the final pathology of patients undergoing radical prostatectomy (RP).
Material And Methods:
Seventy-two patients diagnosed with prostate cancer (PCa), who were RP candidates from two institutions, were prospectively included. All patients underwent preoperative multi-parametric magnetic resonance imaging (mpMRI) at 1.5 T, without the use of an endorectal coil, with multiplanar images in T1WI, T2WI, DWI, and DCE. The AUC and a calibration graph were used to validate the nomogram, using the regression coefficients of the Giganti-Coppola study.
Results:
The original nomogram had an AUC of 0.90 (p = 0.001), with a sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, negative predictive value, and accuracy of 100%, 5.1%, 47.1%, 100%, and 48%, respectively. The calibration graph showed an overestimation of the nomogram for ECE.
Conclusion:
The GCN has an adequate ability in predicting ECE; however, in our sample, it showed limited accuracy and overestimated likelihood of ECE in the final pathology of patients with PCa submitted to RP.
Key Points:
• Knowledge of preoperative local staging of prostate cancer is essential for surgical treatment. Extracapsular extension increases the chance of positive surgical margins. • Imaging modalities such as mpMRI alone does not have suitable accuracy in local staging. • Giganti-Coppola's nomogram achieved an adequate ability in predicting ECE.
