Effects of landscapes and range expansion on population structure and local adaptation

Understanding the origin and distribution of genetic diversity across landscapes is critical for predicting the future of organisms in changing climates. This study investigated how adaptive and demographic forces have shaped diversity and population structure in Pinus densata, a keystone species on Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau (QTP). We examined the distribution of genomic diversity across the range of P. densata using exome capture sequencing. We applied spatially explicit tests to dissect the impacts of allele surfing, geographic isolation and environmental gradients on population differentiation and forecasted how this genetic legacy may limit the persistence of P. densata in future climates. We found that allele surfing from range expansion could explain the distribution of 39% of the c. 48 000 genotyped single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs). Uncorrected, these allele frequency clines severely confounded inferences of selection. After controlling for demographic processes, isolation-by-environment explained 9.2-19.5% of the genetic structure, with c. 4.0% of loci being affected by selection. Allele surfing and genotype-environment associations resulted in genomic mismatch under projected climate scenarios. We illustrate that significant local adaptation, when coupled with reduced diversity as a result of demographic history, constrains potential evolutionary response to climate change. The strong signal of genomic vulnerability in P. densata may be representative for other QTP endemics.