A study on two kinds of scoring models in predicting the degree of esophageal varices and bleeding

This study aims to investigate the value and determine the accuracy of two kinds of scoring models in predicting the degree of esophageal varices (EV) and esophageal variceal bleeding (EVB) in patients with liver cirrhosis (LC).

A total of 189 patients with LC, who underwent esophagogastroduodenoscopy (EGD), color Doppler ultrasound (CDU), and computed tomography (CT), were retrospectively analyzed. Then, the routine blood examination, liver function test, M-index of the spleen in CT, EGD, and CDU results were recorded. According to the EGD result, these patients were divided into five groups: varicose bleeding group, severe varices group, moderate varices group, mild varices group, and no varices group. Then, the receiver operating characteristic curves of all predicting parameters studied were respectively drawn, the area under the receiver operating characteristic curves were calculated, and the predictive value of EV and EVB was evaluated.

The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of the VAP score model and Plt/S-D score model was 0.901 and 0.835, respectively. The VAP score model cut-off value of 461.5 for predicting moderate esophageal varices (MoEV), severe esophageal varices (SEV), and EVB has a specificity and sensitivity of 100% and 68.7%, respectively, while the Plt/S-D score model cut-off value of 835.5 for predicting MoEV, SEV, and EVB has a specificity and sensitivity of 95.1% and 58.2%, respectively.

These two kinds of scoring models can predict the degree of esophageal varices and bleeding in liver cirrhosis patients and has good predictive accuracy.