G2M Cell Cycle Pathway Score as a Prognostic Biomarker of Metastasis in Estrogen Receptor (ER)-Positive Breast Cancer

The vast majority of breast cancer death is a result of metastasis. Thus, accurate identification of patients who are likely to have metastasis is expected to improve survival. The G2M checkpoint plays a critical role in cell cycle. We hypothesized that breast cancer tumors with high activity of G2M pathway genes are more aggressive and likely to metastasize. To test this, we used the single-sample gene set variation analysis method to calculate the score for the Hallmark G2M checkpoint pathway using gene expression data of a total of 4626 samples from 12 human breast cancer cohorts. As expected, a high G2M pathway score correlated with enriched tumor expression of other cell proliferation-related gene sets. The score was significantly associated with clinical aggressive features of tumors and patient survival in estrogen receptor (ER)-positive/human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 (HER2)-negative breast cancer. Interestingly, a high G2M score of metastasis tumors was also significantly associated with worse survival. In primary as well as metastasis tumors with high scores, the infiltration of both pro- and anti-cancerous immune cells increased. Tumor G2M score was also associated with treatment response to systemic chemotherapy in ER-positive/HER2-negative cancer, and was predictive of response to cyclin-dependent kinase inhibition therapy.