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Changes in cohort wealth over a generation.

M H David1, P L Menchik

  • 1Department of Economics, University of Wisconsin 53706.

Demography
|August 1, 1988
PubMed
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Estimating wealth is challenging due to varying mortality risks and truncated estate data. This study overcomes these issues, revealing survivors hold more wealth, correcting downward bias in wealth-age estimates.

Area of Science:

  • Economics
  • Demography
  • Sociology

Background:

  • Estimating cohort wealth is empirically challenging due to differential mortality risks and truncated estate data.
  • Existing methods like the estate multiplier method may introduce downward bias in wealth-age relationship estimates.
  • Understanding wealth accumulation and distribution across the lifespan is crucial for economic and social policy.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To address the empirical challenges in computing expected wealth for cohorts.
  • To develop and apply a novel methodology for estimating cohort wealth, accounting for mortality and survival.
  • To provide more accurate estimates of wealth-age relationships and investigate dissaving patterns.

Main Methods:

  • Utilized hazard rate models to estimate differential occupational mortality risks from tax records.

Related Experiment Videos

  • Simulated net estate values for individuals within birth cohorts who survived observation periods.
  • Employed longitudinal data to analyze wealth accumulation and dissaving behaviors.
  • Main Results:

    • Survivors consistently demonstrated greater wealth holdings than deceased individuals across birth years (1890-1924).
    • The estate multiplier method, without adjustments, exhibits a significant downward bias in wealth-age estimations.
    • Longitudinal data analysis indicates no substantial dissaving occurs after age 65.

    Conclusions:

    • The developed methodology effectively resolves issues of varying mortality and data truncation in wealth estimation.
    • Accurate cohort wealth estimation requires accounting for survivor bias, which significantly impacts wealth-age profiles.
    • Findings suggest wealth is generally maintained or potentially grows in later life, challenging assumptions of widespread dissaving.