A methodology for mapping current and future heat stress risk in pigs

Area of Science:

• Agricultural Science
• Climate Science
• Animal Science

Background:

• Global climate change poses a significant threat to livestock productivity, particularly for pigs.
• Rising temperatures and humidity levels exacerbate heat stress in animals.
• Earth observation technologies offer new tools for assessing climate change impacts on livestock.

Purpose of the Study:

• To develop and apply a methodology for mapping current and future heat stress risk in pigs.
• To quantify the number of pigs exposed to heat stress under projected climate change scenarios.
• To inform policy and resource allocation in the livestock sector.

Main Methods:

• Utilized R software to combine temperature and relative humidity data.
• Developed a methodology to map monthly heat stress risk.
• Employed 18 global circulation models to project future impacts (2050s).

Main Results:

• Over 800,000 pigs in Uganda are projected to be affected by heat stress by the 2050s.
• Detailed monthly heat stress risk maps were generated for growing-finishing pigs.
• The study quantified the scale of future heat stress exposure.

Conclusions:

• Climate change-induced heat stress presents a substantial future risk to pig populations in Uganda.
• The developed methodology provides a valuable tool for assessing and managing heat stress impacts.
• Findings support evidence-based policy for climate change adaptation in the livestock sector.