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Measuring and forecasting progress towards the education-related SDG targets.

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Global education progress shows near-universal primary completion by 2030, but secondary and tertiary education face challenges. While the gender gap in schooling is closing, disparities persist in some regions, with educational inequality peaking in 2017 and projected to decline.

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Area of Science:

  • Social Sciences
  • Development Studies
  • Education Policy

Background:

  • Education is a key indicator of well-being and national development.
  • The Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) emphasize educational progress and equity.
  • Understanding educational inequality is crucial for achieving global development targets.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To model the within-country distribution of years of schooling.
  • To analyze trends in educational inequality since 1970.
  • To forecast progress towards 2030 education-related SDG targets.

Main Methods:

  • Development of a model for within-country schooling distributions.
  • Analysis of historical data on years of schooling from 1970.
  • Projection of future educational attainment and inequality metrics.

Main Results:

  • Near-universal primary education is projected globally by 2030, but secondary and tertiary completion rates remain a challenge.
  • The global gender gap in schooling has nearly closed, though significant disparities persist in specific regions.
  • Educational inequality peaked globally in 2017 and is projected to decrease by 2030, with females predicted to surpass males in educational attainment in 18 countries.

Conclusions:

  • The developed framework enables tracking national progress towards SDG education targets and inequality levels.
  • Reducing educational inequality is vital for equitable human capital distribution and societal development.
  • Continued monitoring and targeted interventions are necessary to address remaining educational disparities.