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A Mathematical Framework for Predicting Lifestyles of Viral Pathogens
1Department of Applied Biosciences and Process Engineering, HS Anhalt, Köthen, Germany. alexander.lange@hs-anhalt.de.
Bulletin of Mathematical Biology
|May 1, 2020
Summary
Viral pathogens exhibit diverse lifestyles, from acute to chronic infections. Their reproductive success is determined by contact rates, infectiousness, and host immunity, modeled using a unified mathematical framework.
Area of Science:
- Virology
- Evolutionary Biology
- Mathematical Biology
Background:
- Viral pathogens display varied lifecycles, infection durations (acute to chronic), and transmission routes.
- Key factors influencing viral fitness include host contact rates, infectiousness, and host immunity.
- Understanding viral reproductive success is crucial for predicting pathogen evolution and spread.
Purpose of the Study:
- To investigate the reproductive success of diverse viral pathogens.
- To develop a unified mathematical framework for modeling viral dynamics.
- To connect intra- and inter-host pathogen dynamics with evolutionary principles.
Main Methods:
- Development of a minimalistic mathematical model integrating intra- and inter-host dynamics.
- Numerical simulations of fitness landscapes for various viral pathogens.
- Application of differential and integral equations, agent-based modeling, network analysis, and probability theory.
Main Results:
- The study presents a unified framework applicable to a wide range of viral infections (e.g., influenza, measles, HCV, STIs).
- Viral pathogens were identified as local maxima within numerically simulated fitness landscapes.
- The model explicitly links transmission parameters (contact rate, infectiousness) and host immunity to pathogen fitness.
Conclusions:
- A unified mathematical approach can explain the diverse lifestyles and reproductive success of viral pathogens.
- Key epidemiological parameters collectively shape viral fitness and evolutionary trajectories.
- The findings provide insights into the evolution of pathogen strategies and host-pathogen interactions.
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