Suicide fatalities in the US compared to Canada: Potential suicides averted with lower firearm ownership in the US

The United States (US) has the highest rate of firearm suicides in the world. The US and Canada are comparable countries with markedly different rates of firearm ownership, providing an opportunity to estimate suicide fatalities that could be averted in the US with a lower rate of firearm ownership.

We compared 2016 US suicide fatality rates-standardized within fourteen sex-specific age groups to reflect the ethnic composition of Canada-to 2016 Canadian suicide rates. We then calculated the number and proportion of suicides that could be averted in the US if the US had the same rates of suicide as in Canada.

If the US had the same suicide rates as in Canada, we estimate there would be approximately 25.9% fewer US suicide fatalities, equivalent to 11,630 suicide fatalities averted each year. This decline would be driven by a 79.3% lower rate of firearm-specific suicide fatalities. The male suicide fatality rate would be 28.8% lower and equivalent to 9,992 fewer suicide fatalities each year. The female suicide fatality rate would be 16.0% lower and equivalent to 1,638 fewer suicide fatalities each year. While 36% of firearm suicide fatalities could be replaced by non-firearm suicide fatalities, 64% of firearm fatalities could be averted entirely.

US policymakers may wish to consider policies that would reduce rates of firearm ownership, given that that about 26% of US suicide fatalities might be averted if the US had the same suicide rates as in Canada, a country with drastically lower firearm ownership rates.