No 'Christmas holiday effect' in Australia for cardiovascular and stroke mortality
M J Lennon1, D R Neuen1, M R Godwin1
1Rural Clinical School, Faculty of Medicine, University of New South Wales, Wagga Wagga, NSW, 2650, Australia; Wagga Wagga Rural Clinical School, School of Medicine Sydney, University of Notre Dame Australia, PO Box 5050, Wagga Wagga NSW, 2650, Australia; Wagga Wagga Base Hospital, Murrumbidgee Local Health District, PO Box 5050, Wagga Wagga, NSW, 2650, Australia.
Insights
This study found no significant increase in cardiovascular or stroke deaths during Australia's Christmas holiday period. Cardiovascular mortality remained stable, contrary to previous findings in other regions.
Area of Science:
- Cardiovascular epidemiology
- Public health surveillance
Background:
- Previous research indicated higher cardiovascular and stroke mortality during holiday periods globally.
- The "holiday heart" phenomenon suggests increased cardiovascular events during festive seasons.
Purpose of the Study:
- To investigate cardiovascular and stroke mortality patterns around the Christmas holiday period in Australia.
- To determine if Australia experiences a similar increase in cardiovascular or stroke deaths during the festive season.
Main Methods:
- A population-based case-control study design was employed.
- Analysis of daily mortality data for cardiovascular diseases (approx. 700,000 deaths) and stroke (approx. 250,000 deaths) in Australia from 1989 to 2015.
- Utilized locally weighted polynomial regression to compare expected versus actual mortality rates during the Christmas period.
Main Results:
- A non-significant increase of 1.08% in coronary heart disease mortality was observed (P = 0.35).
- A non-significant increase of 0.20% in stroke mortality was observed (P = 0.87).
Conclusions:
- The study found no statistically significant evidence of increased cardiovascular or stroke mortality in Australia during the Christmas holiday period.
- These findings contrast with some international studies, suggesting regional variations in the holiday effect on mortality.
Objectives:
Cardiovascular events and mortality have shown a higher incidence within the Christmas holiday period in previous studies and in the northern and southern hemisphere. Our study aimed to assess changes in cardiovascular and stroke mortality variation around the Christmas period in Australia.
Study Design:
The study design is a population-based case-control study.
Methods:
Daily mortality data attributed to stroke and cardiovascular was compiled from Australia between 1989 and 2015, amounting to approximately 700,000 and 250,000 deaths, respectively. A locally weighted polynomial regression line was used to estimate expected mortality rates during that period and compared with actual results.
Results:
There was a non-significant increase of 1.08% (P = 0.35) and 0.20% (P = 0.87) for coronary heart disease and stroke mortality, respectively, in the Christmas holiday period.
Conclusions:
There is no evidence of an increase in cardiovascular and stroke mortality in the Christmas holiday period in Australia.
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