Modelling spatial variations of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) in Africa

Ibrahim Ayoade Adekunle1, Abayomi Toyin Onanuga1, Olanrewaju Olugbenga Akinola1

  • 1Department of Economics, Olabisi Onabanjo University, Ago-Iwoye, Nigeria; Department of Mass Communication, Olabisi Onabanjo University, Ago-Iwoye, Nigeria.

Insights

This study analyzed COVID-19 deaths and confirmed cases in Africa, finding approximately 0.045 deaths per confirmed case. Understanding these spatial variations is crucial for public health strategies against the novel coronavirus.

Area of Science:

  • Epidemiology
  • Spatial analysis
  • Public Health

Background:

  • Human-to-human transmission of the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) has been established globally since late 2019.
  • Exploration of transmission outliers and spatial patterns remains critical for understanding disease spread.
  • Publicly available data on COVID-19 confirmed cases and deaths across Africa provide a basis for epidemiological investigation.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To examine the spatial density and statistical credence of COVID-19 transmission dynamics in Africa.
  • To investigate the nexus between COVID-19 attributable deaths and confirmed cases.
  • To identify unobserved factors influencing the spread of COVID-19 within the African continent.

Main Methods:

  • Construction of spatial variations and clusters to analyze COVID-19 data.
  • Application of the dynamic system generalized method of moment estimation procedure.
  • Accounting for cross-sectional dependence in statistical analysis.

Main Results:

  • A statistically significant finding of approximately 0.045 COVID-19 deaths per confirmed case in Africa.
  • Identification of a strict orthogonal relationship between confirmed cases and deaths, after accounting for cross-sectional dependence.
  • Spatial analysis revealed variations in disease burden across different regions.

Conclusions:

  • The study provides statistical evidence on the relationship between COVID-19 deaths and cases in Africa.
  • Findings underscore the importance of spatial analysis in understanding disease transmission patterns.
  • Discussion of policy measures informed by the epidemiological and spatial findings is essential for pandemic control.

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