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Author Spotlight: Advancements in Multiplex Detection of Respiratory Viruses
Published on: November 10, 2023
Modelling spatial variations of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) in Africa
Ibrahim Ayoade Adekunle1, Abayomi Toyin Onanuga1, Olanrewaju Olugbenga Akinola1
1Department of Economics, Olabisi Onabanjo University, Ago-Iwoye, Nigeria; Department of Mass Communication, Olabisi Onabanjo University, Ago-Iwoye, Nigeria.
Insights
This study analyzed COVID-19 deaths and confirmed cases in Africa, finding approximately 0.045 deaths per confirmed case. Understanding these spatial variations is crucial for public health strategies against the novel coronavirus.
Area of Science:
- Epidemiology
- Spatial analysis
- Public Health
Background:
- Human-to-human transmission of the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) has been established globally since late 2019.
- Exploration of transmission outliers and spatial patterns remains critical for understanding disease spread.
- Publicly available data on COVID-19 confirmed cases and deaths across Africa provide a basis for epidemiological investigation.
Purpose of the Study:
- To examine the spatial density and statistical credence of COVID-19 transmission dynamics in Africa.
- To investigate the nexus between COVID-19 attributable deaths and confirmed cases.
- To identify unobserved factors influencing the spread of COVID-19 within the African continent.
Main Methods:
- Construction of spatial variations and clusters to analyze COVID-19 data.
- Application of the dynamic system generalized method of moment estimation procedure.
- Accounting for cross-sectional dependence in statistical analysis.
Main Results:
- A statistically significant finding of approximately 0.045 COVID-19 deaths per confirmed case in Africa.
- Identification of a strict orthogonal relationship between confirmed cases and deaths, after accounting for cross-sectional dependence.
- Spatial analysis revealed variations in disease burden across different regions.
Conclusions:
- The study provides statistical evidence on the relationship between COVID-19 deaths and cases in Africa.
- Findings underscore the importance of spatial analysis in understanding disease transmission patterns.
- Discussion of policy measures informed by the epidemiological and spatial findings is essential for pandemic control.
Abstract:
Clinical and epidemiological evidence has been advanced for human-to-human transmission of the novel coronavirus rampaging the world since late 2019. Outliers in the human-to-human transmission are yet to be explored. In this study, we examined the spatial density and leaned statistical credence to the global debate. We constructed spatial variations of clusters that examined the nexus between COVID-19 attributable deaths and confirmed cases. We rely on publicly available data on confirmed cases and death across Africa to unravel the unobserved factors, that could be responsible for the spread of COVID-19. We relied on the dynamic system generalised method of moment estimation procedure and found a ~0.045 Covid19 deaths as a result of confirmed cases in Africa. We accounted for cross-sectional dependence and found a basis for the strict orthogonal relationship. Policy measures were discussed.
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