Simulation of sorghum introduction and its impacts on land use change-A case study on Lubelski region of Eastern Poland

Echoing the bioenergy development initiative in Poland, high expectations are pinned on sweet sorghum usage for biogas plants. In contrast to its high profile in the industry, the research on the introduction and production of sorghum in Poland is lagging behind. To solve this issue, in this paper we have developed a spatial-agent dynamic model of the agricultural land use and applied the model to eastern Poland. The model suggests that the economic and technical potential of sweet sorghum in this region is 6 and 7.5 million tonnes, respectively. Its introduction process largely follows the pattern of a typical industry life cycle, with the startup at the price of 8.20 €/tonne. Along with the market penetration of sorghum, a dramatic land use change of conventional crops can be foreseen, even with a land use competition among those crops. We believe that the exploitation of unutilized agricultural land resources and improving the yield of sorghum are helpful to alleviate this land use conflict. However, a higher food demand in the future and climate change may constrain the role of sorghum. This first comprehensive and high-resolution study to its kind in Poland can help assess the country's bioenergy policies and contribute to the development of the biogas industry.