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Predicting ecosystem state changes in shallow lakes using an aquatic ecosystem model: Lake Hinge, Denmark, an

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  • 1Department of Bioscience, Aarhus University, 8600, Silkeborg, Denmark.

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PubMed
Summary
This summary is machine-generated.

Restoring lakes requires understanding ecosystem shifts. Including depth variations in models shows gradual changes in lake states, not sudden shifts, aiding better nutrient management for clear water.

Keywords:
FABM-PCLakeGeneral Ocean Turbulence Modelaquatic ecosystem modelingcritical nutrient loadslake restorationpredictive ecologyregime shiftsshallow lakeswater quality

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Area of Science:

  • Ecological modeling
  • Limnology
  • Environmental science

Background:

  • Shallow lakes often exist in turbid, phytoplankton-dominated or clear-water, macrophyte-dominated states.
  • Dynamic lake models like PCLake predict nutrient thresholds for regime shifts, but may oversimplify vertical gradients.
  • Recent studies suggest lake ecosystem changes are often gradual, challenging the traditional regime shift concept.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To investigate if accounting for depth-dependent heterogeneity influences the gradualness of lake ecosystem regime shifts.
  • To assess the impact of vertical gradients in water and sediment layers on lake model predictions.
  • To refine predictions of external nutrient load thresholds for restoring clear-water conditions.

Main Methods:

  • Coupling the 1D hydrodynamic model GOTM with the aquatic ecosystem model PCLake within the FABM framework.
  • Implementing vertical gradients in water column and sediment layers for a comprehensive depth-dependent analysis.
  • Calibrating and validating the GOTM-FABM-PCLake model using a 14-year dataset from Lake Hinge, Denmark, with Auto-Calibration Python (ACPy).

Main Results:

  • The GOTM-FABM-PCLake model demonstrated strong agreement with observed data for temperature, nitrogen, and phosphorus species, and adequate simulation of chlorophyll a, zooplankton, and macrophyte coverage.
  • Bifurcation analysis revealed that incorporating depth heterogeneity led to more gradual responses in macrophyte extent and phytoplankton chlorophyll-a to reduced phosphorus loads.
  • Hysteresis effects were still observed, indicating complex dynamics in lake ecosystem state changes.

Conclusions:

  • Including depth heterogeneity in lake models provides a more realistic representation of ecosystem dynamics, showing gradual rather than abrupt regime shifts.
  • Accurate determination of external nutrient load thresholds for achieving clear-water states necessitates the inclusion of depth-dependent processes.
  • This approach enhances the predictive power of lake management models for restoring aquatic ecosystems.