Elaborating a systems methodology for cascading climate change impacts and implications

Area of Science:

• Environmental science
• Systems science
• Climate change adaptation

Background:

• Climate change poses risks through cascading impacts in linked human-environment systems.
• There is a lack of practical guidance and empirical examples for assessing climate-related cascades.
• Understanding these interactions is crucial for anticipating surprises and feedbacks.

Purpose of the Study:

• To elaborate a systems-based methodology for identifying and evaluating cascading climate change impacts.
• To provide practical guidance for assessing climate-related cascades.
• To enhance understanding of human-environment system interactions under climate change.

Main Methods:

• Developed and applied a systems-based methodology.
• Utilized a participatory process with urban infrastructure managers.
• Employed causal diagrams for visualizing cascades and expert elicitation.

Main Results:

• The proposed methodology offers a robust and flexible analytical framework for evaluating cascades.
• Visualizing cascades as causal diagrams enhances stakeholder understanding of interdependencies.
• The process generated valuable insights into potential cascades, their interactions, and management implications.

Conclusions:

• The systems methodology effectively identifies interdependencies and transmission pathways for climate impacts.
• It enhances stakeholder comprehension of climate change causes, effects, and cascading implications.
• The approach provides a visual aid for exploring interventions and advancing methodological development.