Indirect predictions with a large number of genotyped animals using the algorithm for proven and young

Reliable single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNP) effects from genomic best linear unbiased prediction BLUP (GBLUP) and single-step GBLUP (ssGBLUP) are needed to calculate indirect predictions (IP) for young genotyped animals and animals not included in official evaluations. Obtaining reliable SNP effects and IP requires a minimum number of animals and when a large number of genotyped animals are available, the algorithm for proven and young (APY) may be needed. Thus, the objectives of this study were to evaluate IP with an increasingly larger number of genotyped animals and to determine the minimum number of animals needed to compute reliable SNP effects and IP. Genotypes and phenotypes for birth weight, weaning weight, and postweaning gain were provided by the American Angus Association. The number of animals with phenotypes was more than 3.8 million. Genotyped animals were assigned to three cumulative year-classes: born until 2013 (N = 114,937), born until 2014 (N = 183,847), and born until 2015 (N = 280,506). A three-trait model was fitted using the APY algorithm with 19,021 core animals under two scenarios: 1) core 2013 (random sample of animals born until 2013) used for all year-classes and 2) core 2014 (random sample of animals born until 2014) used for year-class 2014 and core 2015 (random sample of animals born until 2015) used for year-class 2015. GBLUP used phenotypes from genotyped animals only, whereas ssGBLUP used all available phenotypes. SNP effects were predicted using genomic estimated breeding values (GEBV) from either all genotyped animals or only core animals. The correlations between GEBV from GBLUP and IP obtained using SNP effects from core 2013 were ≥0.99 for animals born in 2013 but as low as 0.07 for animals born in 2014 and 2015. Conversely, the correlations between GEBV from ssGBLUP and IP were ≥0.99 for animals born in all years. IP predictive abilities computed with GEBV from ssGBLUP and SNP predictions based on only core animals were as high as those based on all genotyped animals. The correlations between GEBV and IP from ssGBLUP were ≥0.76, ≥0.90, and ≥0.98 when SNP effects were computed using 2k, 5k, and 15k core animals. Suitable IP based on GEBV from GBLUP can be obtained when SNP predictions are based on an appropriate number of core animals, but a considerable decline in IP accuracy can occur in subsequent years. Conversely, IP from ssGBLUP based on large numbers of phenotypes from non-genotyped animals have persistent accuracy over time.