Related Experiment Video
Updated: Dec 22, 2025
Predicting the Effectiveness of Population Replacement Strategy Using Mathematical Modeling
Published on: July 4, 2007
A surrogate FRAX model for the Kyrgyz Republic
O Lesnyak1, A Zakroyeva2, O Lobanchenko3
1Mechnikov North West State Medical University, St. Petersburg, Russia.
Abstract:
The hip fracture rates from Kazakhstan were used to create a surrogate FRAX® model for the Kyrgyz Republic.
Introduction:
The International Society for Clinical Densitometry and International Osteoporosis Foundation recommend utilizing a surrogate FRAX model, based on the country-specific risk of death, and fracture data based on a country where fracture rates are considered to be representative of the index country.
Objective:
This paper describes a surrogate FRAX model for the Kyrgyz Republic.
Methods:
The FRAX model used the incidence of hip fracture from the neighbouring country of Kazakhstan and the death risk for the Kyrgyz Republic.
Results:
Compared with the model for Kazakhstan, the surrogate model gave somewhat higher 10-year fracture probabilities for men between 60 and 80 years of age and lower probabilities for men above the age of 80. For women the probabilities were similar up to the age of 75-80 years and then lower. There were very close correlations in fracture probabilities between the surrogate and authentic models (1.00) so that the use of the Kyrgyz model had little impact on the rank order of risk. It was estimated that 2752 hip fractures arose in 2015 in individuals over the age of 50 years in the Kyrgyz Republic, with a predicted increase by 207% to 8435 in 2050.
Conclusion:
The surrogate FRAX model for the Kyrgyz Republic provides the opportunity to determine fracture probability among the Kyrgyz population and help guide decisions about treatment.
Related Concept Videos
01:26Pharmacokinetic Models: Comparison and Selection Criterion
Physiological models take a detailed approach by considering specific molecular processes. They can predict drug distribution, metabolism, and elimination changes, providing a comprehensive understanding of how drugs interact with the body.
01:20Actuarial Approach
Consider the example of a high-risk surgical procedure with significant early-stage mortality. A two-year clinical study is conducted,...
01:14Model Approaches for Pharmacokinetic Data: Compartment Models
Two primary types of compartment models are recognized: mammillary and catenary. The more...
01:15Model Approaches for Pharmacokinetic Data: Physiological Models
01:23Mechanistic Models: Compartment Models in Individual and Population Analysis
00:59Model-Independent Approaches for Pharmacokinetic Data: Noncompartmental Analysis
One important characteristic of noncompartmental analyses is that drug exposure increases proportionally with increasing doses. This...