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Projected land-use changes in the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways: Insights and implications
Ronald C Estoque1, Makoto Ooba2, Takuya Togawa2
1National Institute for Environmental Studies, 16-2 Onogawa, Tsukuba City, Ibaraki, 305-8506, Japan. estoque.ronaldcanero@nies.go.jp.
Ambio
|May 8, 2020
Summary
The Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) framework advances global environmental change scenarios. Considering gross land use gains and losses, not just net changes, will improve future projections and sustainability research.
Area of Science:
- Environmental Science
- Sustainability Science
- Climate Change Research
Background:
- The Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) framework significantly improved upon previous scenario frameworks like the IPCC's Special Report on Emissions Scenarios.
- SSPs are expected to be integral to the IPCC's Sixth Assessment Report, influencing climate change and sustainability research.
Purpose of the Study:
- To enhance the comprehensiveness and interpretability of SSPs' projected global land-use changes.
- To propose methods for a more nuanced analysis of land-use dynamics within the SSP framework.
Main Methods:
- The study recommends analyzing projected gross gains and gross losses for each land-use class across all SSP scenarios.
- This contrasts with solely focusing on net changes between time points.
Main Results:
- Considering gross land-use changes provides a more detailed understanding of future land-use dynamics than net change analysis alone.
- This approach can improve the accuracy and utility of SSP-based land-use projections.
Conclusions:
- Integrating gross land-use change analysis will lead to more robust SSP projections.
- This methodology can foster better collaboration between climate and land system science communities for sustainable development.
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