Application of a system dynamics model in forecasting the supply and age distribution of physicians

To predict the future supply and age distribution of physicians with a simulation model, which can be used as an advising tool for policymakers who decide on enrollment and specialization training (ST) quotas at the national level.

A simulation model was created using the system dynamics (SD) method. Changes in the number of physicians and their age distribution were projected in the context of the expected future changes of the Croatian population under different scenarios covering the period from 2017 to 2041.

The two scenarios showed that Croatia would not face physician shortage in the future. The scenario 1 projected that Croatia would certainly reach the current European Union (EU) average of 360 physicians per 100 000 inhabitants by 2021, and that this figure would increase to 430 per 100 000 inhabitants by 2041. The scenario 2 suggested a similar trend, with Croatia reaching the current EU average by 2021 and the number of physicians increasing to 451 per 100 000 inhabitants by 2041. Both scenarios indicated that the Croatian physicians' age distribution will recover in favor of younger age groups of specialists.

There is no need to increase the enrollment into the medical schools to ensure sufficient number of physicians per capita in Croatia, but it is necessary to keep the recently reached level of 550 licenses for ST per year. The developed dynamic model is available online and can be adapted to the analysis of different scenarios in different health care systems.