A concept for detecting unexpected changes in the environment early

A project was established under the auspices of the German Federal Ministry of Research and Technology with the task of developing a concept for the early recognition of signals for unexpected deleterious changes in the environment. Predictive assessments of products (e.g., chemicals) and technologies as regards their potential environmental impacts contain numerous sources of error and uncertainties. Therefore, appropriate observation systems are needed in order to detect unexpected developments in the environment and in human health. Long-term storage of samples (environmental specimen banking) is the third basic activity that must be undertaken within an early warning system. When monitoring the environment for unwanted changes, it is not sufficient to trace some individual agents, preselected for their well-known capacity to inflict harm. The following avenues of identifying symptoms of change in the environment were identified: development and deployment of "key indicators"; acquisition and correlative treatment of conventional monitoring data from different sources; and execution of concise studies in environmental problem areas. Key indicators are defined as scientific measurement and observation methods which respond to early stages of anthropogenically induced environmental changes and are capable of responding to a multitude of simultaneously present agents. A series of examples is discussed. Approaches concerning how the statistical evaluation of available sets of environment-related data could reveal unexpected developments are presented.