Spatiotemporal modeling of soil heavy metals and early warnings from scenarios-based prediction

Prediction of soil heavy metal concentrations based on continuous site specific investigation can provide reference for soil metal contamination prevention and early warning of soil environmental quality. In this study, the spatiotemporal variations of soil heavy metals (Cd, Ni, Zn, Pb and Cu) in Wenling were analyzed with 132 and 169 soil samples gathered in 2011 and 2016. In addition, we adopted a scenario-simulation model to predict future dynamic concentrations of soil heavy metals under optimistic (the pollution inputs are zero under strict environmental policy) and default (the pollution status maintain constant) conditions. Results indicated that the paddy soil was contaminated mainly by Cd and Cu. Spatiotemporal maps revealed distinct patterns in the joint area, where soil Cd, Ni, Zn, Pb and Cu all increased in northwest. Soil heavy metal concentrations as well as the associated ecological risks would decline gradually under optimistic scenario, while sharply increase when no control acts are taken over long term in default condition. The percentages of soil Cd and Cu that exceeding their corresponding risk screening value (RSV) under the default condition would be 1.6 and 1.3 times higher than those under optimistic scenario 10 years later. The probability of high potential ecological risk in default condition would be twice higher than that under optimistic scenario in 2026. Overall, strengthening the control of pollution sources and strict environmental policy are very important for soil heavy metals contamination prevention and control.