[The method for prediction of high-grade premature ventricular contractions in patients with heart failure and...

Aim To develop a method for prediction of high-grade ventricular extrasystole (VE) in patients with chronic heart failure with preserved ejection fraction (CHF-PEF) based on results of an echocardiography (EchoCG) study.Material and methods At the first step, the study included 121 patients of the Cardiology Department, Municipal Clinical Hospital #31, St. Petersburg (calculation group) with symptoms and clinical signs of CHF-PEF (median age, 62 years). For testing accuracy of the developed formula, a control group was formed, which consisted of 42 patients with CHF-PEF (median age, 59 years). EchoCG at rest and ECG Holter monitoring were performed for all patient. The VE classification according to B. Lown and M. Wolf (1971) in the M. Ryan (1975) modification was used. Results of the evaluation were determined by the most significant recorded grade. Grade III or higher VE were considered as high-grade VE.Results Using logistic regression analysis of data for patients of the calculation group, a statistical model was constructed and a respective formula was developed to predict a probability of high-grade VE in CHF-PEF patients depending on the presence of risk factors (EchoCG criteria). According to the obtained data the following factors primarily contributed to the model: interventricular septal (IVS) thickness (p=0.007; Wald=7.44), end-diastolic volume index (EDVI) (p=0.044; Wald=4.13), and the degree of diastolic dysfunction (DD) (p<0.0001; Wald=19.90). For testing the formula accuracy, the analysis was performed in the control group. Based on data of both stages, the following values were obtained: for the calculation group, the method sensitivity was 77.8 %, the specificity was 82.4 %, the accuracy was 81.0 %; for the control group, 81.8 %, 70 %, and 76.2 %, respectively; for both groups together, 79.3 %, 80.0 %, and 79.8 %, respectively. In ROC-analysis of this prognostic model, the area under the ROC-curve (AUC) was 0.852 (95 % CI: 0.776-0.910; p<0.0001) for the calculation group; 0.818 (95 % CI: 0.669-0.920; p<0.0001) for the control group; and 0.855 (95 % CI: 0.792-0.905; p<0.0001) for both groups together, which indicated a good quality of the prognostic model.Conclusion The EchoCG predictors of high-grade VE in patients with CHF-PEF included degree of DD, EDVI, and IVS thickness. The developed method with the constructed formula for prediction of high-grade VE in CHF-PEF patients showed high sensitivity, specificity and accuracy.