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COVID-19: Are Africa's diagnostic challenges blunting response effectiveness?
Francis Kobia1,2, Jesse Gitaka1,3
1Research and Innovation, Mount Kenya University, Thika, 01000, Kenya.
AAS Open Research
|May 14, 2020
Summary
COVID-19 diagnostic challenges in Africa may underestimate the true incidence of novel Coronavirus disease (COVID-19). Lower testing rates could lead to missed opportunities or disproportionate responses, impacting economies.
Area of Science:
- Public Health
- Infectious Diseases
- Epidemiology
Background:
- The COVID-19 pandemic, caused by SARS-CoV-2, rapidly spread globally after emerging in December 2019.
- As of April 1, 2020, Africa reported relatively low COVID-19 cases (5,999) compared to other continents, with South Africa having the highest number.
- A significant portion of African COVID-19 cases were concentrated in South Africa, Algeria, Egypt, Morocco, and Tunisia.
Purpose of the Study:
- To discuss COVID-19 diagnostic challenges in the African context.
- To analyze how limited testing rates may affect the accurate assessment of COVID-19 incidence in Africa.
- To explore the potential consequences of under- or overestimating the spread of COVID-19 in African nations.
Main Methods:
- Review of reported COVID-19 case numbers in Africa as of April 1, 2020.
- Analysis of the distribution of cases across African countries.
- Speculation on the impact of testing rates on reported incidence.
Main Results:
- Africa had a lower reported incidence of COVID-19 compared to Europe, the US, and China.
- South Africa, Algeria, Egypt, Morocco, and Tunisia accounted for the majority of reported cases in Africa.
- Significantly lower testing rates in African nations were suspected to grossly underestimate actual COVID-19 incidence.
Conclusions:
- Lower testing rates in Africa may lead to an underestimation of COVID-19 incidence.
- Inaccurate incidence data can result in missed opportunities for effective resource deployment.
- Overestimation of spread due to limited data could lead to disproportionate and economically damaging measures.
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