Natural history of incidentally diagnosed brainstem cavernous malformations in a prospective observational cohort

There was a lack of natural history of incidental brainstem cavernous malformations (CMs), hemorrhage of which would lead to severe neuropathies. The study aimed to evaluate the prospective hemorrhage rate and neurological outcome of the disease. This prospective cohort included patients with incidental brainstem CMs referred to our institute from 2009 to 2015. The diagnosis was confirmed based on the patients' complain, physical examination, and radiographic evidence. Clinical data were collected, scheduled follow-up was performed, and the independent risk factors were identified by multivariate analysis. This cohort included 48 patients (22 female, 45.8%). The median follow-up duration was 60.7 months, and 13 prospective hemorrhages occurred within 244.0 patient-years yielding an annual hemorrhage rate of 5.3%. The hemorrhage-free survival at 1 and 5 years was 91.6% and 80.6%. Age ≥ 55 years (hazard ratio (HR) = 8.59, p = 0.003), lesion size (per 1-mm increase) (HR = 3.55, p = 0.041), developmental venous anomaly (HR = 10.28, p = 0.017), and perilesional edema (HR = 4.90, p = 0.043) were independent risk factors for hemorrhage. Seven patients (14.6%) received surgical resection, and the other 41 patients remained under observation. Neurological function was improved in 22 patients (45.8%), unchanged in 19 (39.6%), and worsened in 7 (14.6%). Prospective hemorrhage (odds ratio = 14.95, p = 0.037) was the only independent risk factor for worsened outcomes. The natural history of incidental brainstem CMs seemed to be acceptable with improved/unchanged outcomes in most patients (85.4%). These results improved our understanding of the disease, and the future study of a large cohort was required to verify our findings.