Forecasting water demand across a rapidly urbanizing region

Area of Science:

• Environmental science
• Urban planning
• Climate change adaptation

Background:

• Urban growth and climate change present complex challenges for water resource management.
• Previous research has analyzed urban planning and climate change impacts on water demand separately, but not their combined effects.

Purpose of the Study:

• To forecast urban water demand under combined scenarios of population density and climate warming.
• To evaluate the joint impact of these factors on water demand in North Carolina and South Carolina through 2065.

Main Methods:

• Utilized a Geographically Weighted Regression model.
• Incorporated socio-economic, environmental, and landscape pattern metrics.
• Developed future scenarios for population densities and climate warming.

Main Results:

• Regional water demand is projected to increase by 37%-383% by 2065 compared to 2010.
• Rising temperatures will increase water demand, but higher density development and urban infill policies can reduce it.
• Water-efficient land use policies show a 5% regional reduction and up to 25% local reduction in water demand for high-growth counties.

Conclusions:

• Combined impacts of urban growth and climate change significantly elevate future water demand.
• Water-efficient land use policies offer a viable strategy to mitigate increased water demand in expanding urban areas.
• These policies are less effective in depopulating rural areas; adaptive strategies are needed for diverse community needs.