Analysis and external validation of a nomogram to predict peritoneal dissemination in gastric cancer

Peritoneal dissemination is difficult to diagnose by conventional imaging technologies. We aimed to construct a nomogram to predict peritoneal dissemination in gastric cancer (GC) patients.

We retrospectively analyzed 1,112 GC patients in Sun Yat-sen University Cancer Center between 2001 and 2010 as the development set and 474 patients from The Sixth Affiliated Hospital, Sun Yat-sen University between 2010 and 2016 as the validation set. The clinicopathological variables associated with gastric cancer with peritoneal dissemination (GCPD) were analyzed. We used logistic regression analysis to identify independent risk factors for peritoneal dissemination. Then, we constructed a nomogram for the prediction of GCPD and defined its predictive value with a receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve. External validation was performed to validate the applicability of the nomogram.

In total, 250 patients were histologically identified as having peritoneal dissemination. Logistic regression analysis demonstrated that age, sex, tumor location, tumor size, signet-ring cell carcinoma (SRCC), T stage, N stage and Borrmann classification IV (Borrmann IV) were independent risk factors for peritoneal dissemination. We constructed a nomogram consisting of these eight factors to predict GCPD and found an optimistic predictive capability, with a C-index of 0.791, an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.791, and a 95% confidence interval (95% CI) of 0.762-0.820. The results found in the external validation set were also promising.

We constructed a highly sensitive nomogram that can assist clinicians in the early diagnosis of GCPD and serve as a reference for optimizing clinical management strategies.