Predicting Trends in Cervical Spinal Surgery in the United States from 2020 to 2040

We sought to predict surgical volumes for 2 common cervical spine procedures from 2020 to 2040.

Using the National Inpatient Sample from 2003-2016, nationwide estimates of anterior cervical diskectomy and fusion (ACDF) and posterior cervical decompression and fusion (PCDF) volumes were calculated using International Classification of Diseases, Ninth and Tenth Revision (ICD-9, ICD-10) procedure codes. With data from the U.S. Census Bureau, estimates of the U.S. population were used to create Poisson models controlling for age and sex. Age was categorized into ranges (<25 years old, 25-34, 35-44, 45-54, 55-64, 65-74, 75-84, and >85), and estimates of surgical volume for each age group were created.

From 2020-2040, increases in surgical volume from 13.3% (153,288-173,699) and 19.3% (29,620-35,335) are expected for ACDF and PCDF, respectively. For ACDF, the largest increases are expected in the 45-54 (42,077-49,827) and 75-84 (8065-14,862) age groups, whereas for PCDF, the largest increases will be seen in the 75-84 (3710-6836) age group. In accordance with an aging population, modest increases will be seen for ACDF (858-1847) and PCDF (730-1573) in the >85-year-old cohort.

As expected, large growth in cervical spine surgical volumes is likely to be seen, which could indicate a need for increased numbers of spinal neurosurgeons and orthopedic surgeons. Further studies are needed to investigate the needs of the field in light of these expected increases in volume.