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Published on: November 10, 2023
Evaluation of COVID-19 epidemic outbreak caused by temporal contact-increase in South Korea
Sungchan Kim1, Yong Dam Jeong2, Jong Hyuk Byun2
1Department of Mathematics, Pusan National University, 2, Busandaehak-ro 63beon-gil, 46241, Busan, Republic of Korea; Finance∙Fishery∙Manufacture Industrial Mathematics Center on Big Data, Pusan National University, 2, Busandaehak-ro 63beon-gil, 46241, Busan, Republic of Korea.
Objectives:
On March 15, 2020, 61.3% of the confirmed cases of COVID-19 infection in South Korea are associated with the worship service that was organized on February 9 in the Shincheonji Church of Jesus in Daegu. We aim to evaluate the effects of mass infection in South Korea and assess the preventive control intervention.
Method:
Using openly available data of daily cumulative confirmed cases and deaths, the basic and effective reproduction numbers was estimated using a modified susceptible-exposed-infected-recovered-type epidemic model.
Results:
The basic reproduction number was estimated to be R0=1.77. The effective reproduction number increased approximately 20 times after the mass infections from the 31 st patient, which was confirmed on February 9 in the Shincheonji Church of Jesus, Daegu. However, the effective reproduction number decreased to less than unity after February 28 owing to the implementation of high-level preventive control interventions in South Korea, coupled with voluntary prevention actions by citizens.
Conclusion:
Preventive action and control intervention were successfully established in South Korea.
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