Revisiting the land use assumptions in forest carbon projects through a case from India

Forest carbon projects are based on the premise of stable land use over long durations generally ranging from 20 to 100 years. This narrative is based on two assumptions- first, that project will be able to offset the opportunity cost of land and labour through carbon and other benefits and second assumption being that social, economic, political and biophysical factors will remain largely stable and not affect the land use significantly. This research critically evaluates these assumptions with the help of empirical evidence from a project in Haryana in India. The analysis suggests that various socioeconomic factors such as the development context of the region, changes in crop, wage and carbon prices have increased the opportunity cost of land manifold. Similarly, factors such as increased uncertainty over resource rights and biophysical factors have adversely affected the land use choices and project viability. Around 50% of the participants have changed the land use affecting the project viability. The opportunity cost of participation has been unevenly high for marginal and poor participants, who are worst affected. Hence, it can be argued that these universal land use assumptions of forest carbon projects are questionable. These findings have implications for the role and design of forest carbon projects in the broad context of climate mitigation. The land use change and forestry options through market based forest carbon projects might not offer as big a mitigation opportunity as is generally projected in the literature due to changing opportunity costs of land, complex property rights and other factors. Hence it might require recalibration of the role of these projects in the mitigation strategies at local,national and global levels. Similarly, the forest carbon projects need to be designed based on a comprehensive assessment of land use, which considers not only a dynamic and differential opportunity cost across various stakeholders, but also other sociocultural and political factors, which can impact the land use and sustainability of the project.