Development of a nomogram that predicts the risk for coronary atherosclerotic heart disease

Area of Science:

• Cardiology
• Preventive Medicine
• Psychosomatic Medicine

Background:

• Coronary atherosclerotic heart disease (CHD) risk assessment often overlooks the interplay of biological, behavioral, and psychological factors.
• A comprehensive approach is needed to identify individuals at high risk for CHD.
• Existing predictive models may not fully capture the multifaceted nature of CHD etiology.

Purpose of the Study:

• To investigate the associations between biological, behavioral, and psychological variables and CHD.
• To develop and validate a predictive nomogram for identifying high-risk individuals for CHD.
• To facilitate the development of preliminary prevention strategies for CHD.

Main Methods:

• A case-control study involving 4392 participants (1578 CHD cases, 2814 controls) in southeast China.
• Evaluation of 33 biological, behavioral, and psychological variables.
• Multivariate logistic regression analysis to identify significant risk factors and develop a predictive nomogram.

Main Results:

• Eight risk factors were identified as significantly associated with CHD.
• The final predictive model incorporated three non-modifiable (sex, age, family history) and five modifiable (hypertension, hyperlipidemia, diabetes, major trauma, anxiety) variables.
• The nomogram demonstrated good accuracy (Area Under the Curve: 0.726) and was validated successfully.

Conclusions:

• A combination of biological, behavioral, and psychological factors significantly influences CHD risk.
• The developed nomogram provides an intuitive tool for preliminary CHD risk assessment.
• This nomogram can aid in the early identification of high-risk individuals and inform preventive measures.