A three-population wave-of-advance model for the European early Neolithic

Ancient DNA studies have shown that early farming spread through most of Europe by the range expansion of farmers of Anatolian origin rather than by the conversion to farming of the local hunter-gatherers, and have confirmed that these hunter-gatherers continued to coexist with the incoming farmers. In this short report, I extend a previous three-population wave-of-advance model to accommodate these new findings, and derive the conditions supportive of such a scenario in terms of the relative magnitudes of the parameters. The revised model predicts that the conversion rate must, not surprisingly, be low, but also that the hunter-gatherers must compete more strongly with the converted farmers than with the alien farmers. Moreover, competition with the hunter-gatherers diminishes the speed of the wave-of advance of the farmers. In addition, I briefly consider how the wave-of-advance approach may contribute to interpreting the results of archaeological studies using the summed probability distribution of radiocarbon dates.