Long-term temporal patterns in flight activities of a migrant diurnal butterfly

Recent studies demonstrated that the Painted Lady (Vanessa cardui), a cosmopolitan diurnal butterfly performs long-range migration between subtropical Africa and north-western Europe, covered by individuals belonging to up to six generations. Here we analyze temporal patterns of complete annual migratory activity of the Painted Lady in Hungary, located in its Central European migratory route, almost completely unstudied before. To do so, we used field occurrence data collected between 2000 and 2019 and estimated temporal patterns in migratory activity by fitting kernel density functions on the daily mean number of individuals and observation frequency. The temporal distributions of kernel density estimates were analyzed as a function of time and key climatic predictors of the study area. We found that (i) the timing of spring arrivals has been advancing; (ii) the relative intensity of the first and last migratory peaks of the Painted Lady significantly increased during the past decades; and (iii) intensity of the last migratory peak is related to the mean temperature of the previous month, inferring that the migration is shifting to earlier dates and their volume of the migration has substantially intensified, evoking mutually nonexclusive, competing hypotheses. Our study indicates the strengthening migration activities of a southerly distributed, long-distance migrant diurnal butterfly, most probably linked to the northward shift of wintering areas induced by warming trends of the southern parts of Europe. However, the complexity of the likely processes leading to changing migratory strategies calls up for further research in both breeding and wintering areas.