[Cardiovascular disease in times of COVID-19]

Area of Science:

• Cardiology
• Public Health
• Epidemiology

Background:

• Cardiovascular disease is the leading cause of adult death in Argentina, with 280 daily fatalities.
• Recent decades saw a 20-30% reduction in cardiovascular mortality through evidence-based interventions.
• The COVID-19 pandemic has seen a drastic drop in cardiovascular consultations and procedures, alongside unexplained mortality increases.

Purpose of the Study:

• To conduct predictive analyses on the consequences of reduced cardiovascular intervention implementation during the COVID-19 pandemic.
• To estimate the impact of decreased cardiovascular risk factor control on new preventable cases.
• To quantify the potential increase in cardiovascular mortality due to reduced treatment efficacy.

Main Methods:

• Predictive analysis modeling.
• Estimation of new cardiovascular disease cases based on risk factor control.
• Calculation of mortality increase from myocardial infarction reperfusion treatment reduction.
• Assessment of excess cardiovascular deaths from relative risk increase.

Main Results:

• An estimated 10,500 new preventable cardiovascular disease cases could arise from reduced risk factor control (April-October 2020).
• A 40-60% drop in reperfusion treatment for myocardial infarction could increase mortality by 3-5%.
• A 10-15% increase in cardiovascular death relative risk equates to 6,000-9,000 excess preventable deaths.

Conclusions:

• Even minor negative impacts on cardiovascular care efficacy significantly affect large populations in Argentina due to high disease prevalence and fatality.
• Maintaining cardiovascular diseases and their risk factors as a health priority is essential.
• Public awareness and authority information are necessary, balancing care with contagion risk minimization.