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Illness expectations predict the development of influenza-like symptoms over the winter season

Francesco Pagnini¹, Cesare Cavalera², Eleonora Volpato³

¹Department of Psychology, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, Milan, Italy; Department of Psychology, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA, USA.

Complementary Therapies in Medicine

|May 24, 2020

Abstract

Objective:

This study explores the hypothesis that cognitive expectations of catching influenza-like symptoms increase the chances of developing the symptoms over the winter season.

Design:

Self-reported data from 247 healthy volunteers were obtained twice, before and after the winter season. In the first assessment, expectations about developing influenza-like symptoms in the incoming months were charted. This data was matched with a post-winter assessment of the actual development of the symptoms.

Results:

The odds of developing symptoms were highly associated with the expectations declared months before (OR = 1.776), and the association remained stable (OR = 1.453) even when accounting for previous influenza-like illnesses and the perception of general health. In contrast with previous findings, perceived stress was not associated with symptom development.

Conclusions:

These results support the hypothesis of a self-fulfilling prophecy mechanism related to influenza-like symptoms.

Keywords:

Illness Expectation Influenza-Like Symptoms Mind/Body Connection Nocebo Placebo

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