Crash risk and subjective risk perception during urban cycling: Evidence for congruent and incongruent sources

Urban planners frequently neglect the role of subjective risk perception during urban cycling. Several findings suggest a complex relationship between the risk of being involved in a crash and the subjective anticipation of this risk.

We investigate the relation of objective risks (operationalized through crashes involving cyclists) and subjective risk perception (operationalized through citizens' reports in a crowdsourcing project) in a medium-sized German city. Using GIS methods, these datasets are linked to various infrastructure and traffic properties that have been found relevant for cycling safety.

Despite a generally high alignment of objective and subjective risk, our findings highlight that the subjective risk perception at a given location can deviate significantly from the actual crash risk. For example, the subjective perception of high risk on one-way streets with bikeways in opposing direction is not matched by a high level of objective risk. Vice versa, some rather dangerous situations (e.g., tram stops) are not perceived as particularly dangerous.

Understanding why and where cyclists over- or underestimate the actual crash risk may provide a foundation for the design of safer cycling infrastructures, as well as for promoting cycling as a comfortable mode of transportation.