Critical transition to woody plant dominance through microclimate feedbacks in North American coastal ecosystems

Climate warming is facilitating the expansion of many cold-sensitive woody species in woodland-grassland ecotones worldwide. Recent research has demonstrated that this range expansion can be further enhanced by positive vegetation-microclimate feedbacks whereby woody canopies induce local nocturnal warming, which reduces freeze-induced damage and favors the establishment of woody plants. However, this local positive feedback can be counteracted by biotic drivers such as browsing and the associated consumption of shrub biomass. The joint effects of large-scale climate warming and local-scale microclimate feedbacks on woody vegetation dynamics in these ecotones remain poorly understood. Here, we used a combination of experimental and modeling approaches to investigate the effects of woody cover on microclimate and the consequent implications on ecological stability in North American coastal ecosystems. We found greater browsing pressure and significant warming (~2°C) beneath shrub canopies compared to adjacent grasslands, which reduces shrub seedlings' exposure to cold damage. Cold sensitivity is evidenced by the significant decline in xylem hydraulic conductivity in shrub seedlings when temperatures dropped below -2°C. Despite the negative browsing-vegetation feedback, a small increase in minimum temperature can induce critical transitions from grass to woody plant dominance. Our framework also predicts the threshold temperature of -7°C for mangrove-salt marsh ecotones on the Atlantic coast of Florida. Above this reference temperature a critical transition may occur from salt marsh to mangrove vegetation, in agreement with empirical studies. Thus, the interaction between ongoing global warming trends and microclimate feedbacks may significantly alter woody vegetation dynamics and ecological stability in coastal ecosystems where woody plant expansion is primarily constrained by extreme low temperature events.