Simulating the Influence of Conjugative-Plasmid Kinetic Values on the Multilevel Dynamics of Antimicrobial Resistance

Marcelino Campos1,2, Álvaro San Millán1,3,4, José M Sempere2

  • 1Department of Microbiology, Ramón y Cajal University Hospital, IRYCIS, Madrid, Spain.

Insights

Bacterial plasmids carrying antibiotic resistance genes spread rapidly. Understanding plasmid kinetics, like conjugation and loss rates, is key to predicting antibiotic resistance dynamics in complex environments such as hospitals.

Area of Science:

  • Microbiology
  • Computational Biology
  • Evolutionary Biology

Background:

  • Bacterial plasmids carrying antibiotic resistance genes are major drivers of antibiotic resistance.
  • Plasmids vary in kinetic properties (conjugation, segregation, loss rates), cellular fitness costs, and compensatory mutation frequencies.
  • The impact of these kinetic variations on plasmid success in complex ecosystems like the microbiota remains unclear.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To investigate how variations in plasmid kinetic values influence the ecological success of antibiotic resistance genes within bacterial populations.
  • To predict the consequences of plasmid kinetic differences on the global spread of antibiotic resistance, particularly in hospital settings.

Main Methods:

  • Utilized membrane computing methods for computational modeling.
  • Simulated bacterial populations and plasmid dynamics under various conditions.

Main Results:

  • Conjugation frequency ≥10⁻³ promotes the dominance of strains with resistance plasmids.
  • Coexistence of multiple antibiotic resistances is facilitated by host strains maintaining two similar plasmids.
  • Low plasmid loss rates (10⁻⁴–10⁻⁵) or high fitness costs (≥0.06) favor plasmids in abundant species.
  • Compensatory mutations enhance plasmid fitness proportionally to the cost at high mutation rates (10⁻³–10⁻⁵).

Conclusions:

  • Plasmid kinetics significantly impact the population ecology of antibiotic resistance.
  • Computational models can predict how changes in plasmid characteristics alter resistance spread in environments like hospitals.