Retracted: Application of a Mathematical Model in Determining the Spread of the Rabies Virus: Simulation Study

Area of Science:

• Veterinary Medicine
• Epidemiology
• Mathematical Biology

Background:

• Rabies is a fatal central nervous system infectious disease caused by the rabies virus, with a near 100% mortality rate.
• The spread of rabies among dogs is a serious concern in countries with inadequate sanitation.

Purpose of the Study:

• To investigate the ecological transmission dynamics of rabies.
• To provide theoretical insights for rabies suppression strategies in China.

Main Methods:

• Construction of a mathematical model for rabies transmission using literature data and official Chinese statistics.
• Data fitting to analyze current rabies cases and predict future trends.
• Evaluation of the efficacy of various rabies control interventions.

Main Results:

• Rabies infection rates are predicted to initially increase before declining.
• The model forecasts rabies cases will stabilize at approximately 500 annually within 10 years.
• Effective control measures include managing dog birth rates and enhancing canine rabies immunity.

Conclusions:

• The basic reproductive number for rabies in China exceeds 1, indicating insufficient current control measures.
• This research offers a theoretical foundation for improving rabies prevention and control programs in China.